内容摘要： 以西藏自治区国内生产总值和影响经济发展的因素作为研究对象，采用定量研究分析的方法，通过西藏GDP数据分析建立了时间序列ARIMA模型，利用该模型对西藏GDP进行了预测。结果表明各年实际值与预测值较为吻合，达到了较好的预测效果。此外采用多元线性回归方法对影响西藏经济的因素进行了分析研究，从影响西藏经济发展的因素来看，在进出口总额、财政支出，固定资产投资总额因素中财政支出对西藏经济发展的因素影响依然较大，这与西藏自身“造血”能力不强有关。

Abstract: In this paper, the gross tors of economic development are domestic product （GDP） of Tibet Autonomous Region and the influencing fac regarded as the objects of this study and the method of quantitative research is adopted. By analyzing the data of the Tibet＇ s GDP, the time series ARIMA model is established, and by applying it, the GDP of Tibet is forecasted. The results show that the actual value coincides with the predicted value which has achieved good prediction effect. Moreover, the multiple linear regression method is used to analyze the fac tors affecting the economy of Tibet. From the results on influence factors of Tibet＇s economy, among all the rele vant factors including fiscal expenditure, exportimport volume, and fixed investments, fiscal expenditure still has a higher influence on the economic development of Tibet. It is due to the poor abilities of ＂hematopoiesis＂ which refers to regenerating of revenue in Tibet.

关键词：西藏;GDP;ARIMA模型;多元线性回归模型;

作者：刘红卫(西藏大学理学院), 肖彩波(西藏大学经济与管理学院)

来源： 《西藏大学学报》 2013年 第4期

中图分类号：F127.8