内容摘要： 本文借鉴国际关系理论试图把亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆在纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫的冲突重构为一种持久的对抗（ER）：一种国与国之间特定的冲突，以其长期性和稳定性闻名。在把ER框架和它的分析因子引入本案例分析之前，本文首先确认了围绕这一冲突的一些概念上的不足，特别是“冻结的冲突”这个概念。在系统的，国家间，国内的，决策者，和时间的层次上分析了美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间不同层次的ER，我们着重于确定未来的研究方向，而非结论性的调查结果。本文的初步结论是，在解释亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间对抗持久性的因素中，内生因素超过外生因素是主要原因，时间的流逝对争议领土的人类和自然地理的影响，以及在不同的水平上冲突力度的趋同。

Abstract: This article draws on international relations theory to attempt a reframing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Norgorny Karabakh as an enduring rivalry (ER): a particular kind of interstate conflict known for its longevity and stability. The article begins by identifying a number of conceptual deficits circulating around this conflict, notably the notion that it is a “frozen conflict”, before introducing the ER framework and its analytical dividends for this case. Different layers of the ER between Armenia and Azerbaijian are then explored at systemic, interstate, domestic, decision-maker, and temporal levels, with a view more toward identifying directions for future research than conclusive findings. Among the article’s tentative conclusions are the primacy of endogenous over exogenous factors in explaining the durability of the rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijian, the impacts of the passage of time on the human and physical geography of the territory under dispute, and the convergence of conflict dynamics across disparate levels.

关键词：领土冲突，持久的对抗，亚美尼亚，阿塞拜疆，卡拉巴赫;

Keyword:territorial conflict, enduring rivalry, Armenia, Azerbaijian, Karabakh;

作者：Laurence Broers(著), 周学文(译)

来源： 《Nationalities, July 2015, volume 43》 2015年